Keeper Strategy & Inflation - When to keep or cut borderline values

My 5x5 league is heading into its second year and I’m in the midst of a rebuilding project after selling the farm to make a title push last year.

Based on some of the players that I’ve traded away that are expected to be kept (Betts $57, Rizzo $50 and Goldie $69), some owners are choosing to overpay for stars and move forward with bloated rosters, while other teams are taking a more conservative approach and rostering 26-30 and keeping $60-$100 in cap space. The current estimated inflation rate is 37%.

I’m planning to keep 21 players that account for a total of $156.

The following players I’ve yet to decide on as their prices are on par with expected inflation values:

  • Jon Lester - $35.00
  • Christopher Archer - $32.00
  • Xander Bogaerts - $30.00
  • Adam Jones - $29.00
  • Dellin Betances - $16.00
  • Arodys Vizcaino - $10.00
  • Leonys Martin - $5.00

One strategy that I’m considering is keeping a light 21 man roster and heading into the draft with a war chest $244) and hope to get my fringe players and stud FAs (Harper, Stanton, Cutch) at a discount.

On the other hand, inflation may drive the price up on my fringe players and I may have to overpay for quality free agents.

Questions:

  1. Which strategy above would you suggest that I pursue?
  2. Which of the players listed above would you suggest I definitely keep?
  3. Any thoughts on successful strategies that I’m not currently considering?

Thanks

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If players like Betts, Rizzo, and Goldy are actually being kept at those prices, I would argue some of that inflation is already accounted for in those high prices, so you could potentially see some deflation in the auction, which is a good reason to cut many of the par players you’re on the fence about. I would lean towards keeping XB in that lineup above and cut the others, though I’m not a good judge on 5 x 5 values.
If you are rebuilding: Advice for Rebuilding in Ottoneu

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