Steamer 600 regressed him to 25 homers. That's not happening.
2016 - 42 HR/600 pace
2015 - 36 HR/600 pace
2014 - 24 HR/600 pace
2013 - 43 HR/600 pace
Like I said, I think there is going to be a ton of mistake cuts of him this offseason and hopefully I'll be there to pick up the scraps.