@eamuscatu ,
Just playing around with (a copy of) the surplus calculator, and I think I found an error. Feel free to trash me if I misunderstand, butâŚ:
On sheet â$ Values Inputâ column F is called Salary but shows positions. The formula of the fields in that column is =IFERROR(VLOOKUP(A2,Rosters!A:H,8,FALSE),""), but I believe it should be =IFERROR(VLOOKUP(A2,Rosters!A:I,9,FALSE),"") to get the salary rather than the position. My guess is you added a column in the Roster sheet at some point but the formula was not updated?
I will have to take a look at this, there was a change to the rosters.csv that added a column to the output, so itâs entirely possible I missed a modification to correct somewhere. Thanks!
Okay I corrected that column, it doesnât actually have any functionality on the Surplus Calc and honestly I donât remember why I even added that salary column to the $ Values Input tab, but itâs working now.
Thank you. I use it to calculate the difference between my players current salary and the projected value to get a sense of pos. and âneg.â surplus for individual players. Might be already available in different sheet but I only just started using it so still discovering
Okay I added two new features to the Surplus Calc:
Arb Targets tab- this tab filters and sorts the rosters to show you the highest surplus asset by team, obviously the $ values are extremely early, but this could be a useful guide to give owners a hierarchy of potential arb targets (especially for owners new to ottoneu)
Team Roster- this tab is just like the Rosters tab, but you can select your team (or any other team) from the dropdown in Cell B1 to see only one teamâs roster sorted by position and then projected $ value
1 - youâve still only put in FGPts, right?
2 - if i change team totals cell B18 to âFanGraphs Pointsâ instead of the formula that pulls in league info, everything else will âworkâ but will treat the league as if it were FGPts, right? so i can use that for a 4x4 for league, for example, if I am comfortable using FGPts values as a proxy and adjusting on the fly?
1- Yes, Iâm waiting for the first batch of '17 Steamer to be released to update all the values
2- You could do that, or just copy all the data in the FGPTs $ value tab to the 4x4 $ value tab
My hope is to have $ values for all formats this week, but my life is made a bit difficult by the fact that all MLB free agents have basically no projected playing time in the current version of Steamer.
I just updated the FGPTS $ values using the early Steamer 2017 projections. I plan on loading $ values for the other formats very soon (likely tomorrow).
I want to pick up on a comment that I think @hernandez17 made recently about surplus that I think might benefit the group as a discussion point in this thread:
Do we really know that teams with the highest surplus entering the season are more likely to succeed in the standings?
Seems like everyone in the @community is sold on attaining surplus assets during the off season, and though it makes logical sense, do we have any data suggesting league winners last year entered the season with the most surplus? Just playing devilâs advocate: Surplus is only as good as your player values entering the season, which almost becomes irrelevant the second the season starts because player values change constantly due to production.
Note to @OttoGraphs: we should try to capture something like @eamuscatuli Surplus Calc for a large sample of leagues (frozen) just before the season starts and then revisit at seasonâs end to see what % of those teams actually have success.
There is no doubt in my mind that surplus is the primary component of team success in ottoneu, but your point that surplus is only is as good as the player values used is exactly right. The teams with the highest surplus per the Surplus Calc may not have fared as well as expected last year, but that would be more an issue with the projections than with the concept of surplus. Itâs one of the reasons I always harp on everyone to not treat the $ values included as gospel.
A couple of additional items to consider. It isnât just the values. It is also the distribution of the surplus across your roster. A $1 1B with $5 in surplus that is stuck behind 2 other 1B is not all that useful during the season but looks good in the calculator. Also, teams with zero prospect assets may appear stronger based on surplus despite the fact that those prospect assets allow teams to improve dramatically once the season starts.
Absolutely right, and Iâve mentioned both those quirks in the past when discussing surplus and the calculator. A 100% literal focus on acquiring surplus (based on the default calc values) is probably not harmful for a beginner, but itâs not a good idea for veterans that know roster construction and in season management are very important for success.