Ottoneu Surplus Calculator (2017 version)

I will have to take a look at this, there was a change to the rosters.csv that added a column to the output, so it’s entirely possible I missed a modification to correct somewhere. Thanks!

Okay I corrected that column, it doesn’t actually have any functionality on the Surplus Calc and honestly I don’t remember why I even added that salary column to the $ Values Input tab, but it’s working now.

Thank you. I use it to calculate the difference between my players current salary and the projected value to get a sense of pos. and “neg.” surplus for individual players. Might be already available in different sheet but I only just started using it so still discovering

1 Like

That actually gives me an idea to add an individual team tab to do exactly that, thanks for the feedback!

I wish my IT department was that responsive! :slight_smile:

Okay I added two new features to the Surplus Calc:

  1. Arb Targets tab- this tab filters and sorts the rosters to show you the highest surplus asset by team, obviously the $ values are extremely early, but this could be a useful guide to give owners a hierarchy of potential arb targets (especially for owners new to ottoneu)

  2. Team Roster- this tab is just like the Rosters tab, but you can select your team (or any other team) from the dropdown in Cell B1 to see only one team’s roster sorted by position and then projected $ value

2 Likes

2 ?

1 - you’ve still only put in FGPts, right?
2 - if i change team totals cell B18 to “FanGraphs Points” instead of the formula that pulls in league info, everything else will “work” but will treat the league as if it were FGPts, right? so i can use that for a 4x4 for league, for example, if I am comfortable using FGPts values as a proxy and adjusting on the fly?

1- Yes, I’m waiting for the first batch of '17 Steamer to be released to update all the values
2- You could do that, or just copy all the data in the FGPTs $ value tab to the 4x4 $ value tab

Looks like the first version of 2017 Steamer projections are now up on FG, so I will probably have updated surplus calc $ values sometime this week.

just FGPts? or all formats? in time for arb changes??

My hope is to have $ values for all formats this week, but my life is made a bit difficult by the fact that all MLB free agents have basically no projected playing time in the current version of Steamer.

1 Like

I didn’t know that :robot: were capable of making excuses…

1 Like

I just updated the FGPTS $ values using the early Steamer 2017 projections. I plan on loading $ values for the other formats very soon (likely tomorrow).

1 Like

Okay, $ values for all formats are now loaded!

1 Like

What a beautiful thing!

I want to pick up on a comment that I think @hernandez17 made recently about surplus that I think might benefit the group as a discussion point in this thread:

Do we really know that teams with the highest surplus entering the season are more likely to succeed in the standings?

Seems like everyone in the @community is sold on attaining surplus assets during the off season, and though it makes logical sense, do we have any data suggesting league winners last year entered the season with the most surplus? Just playing devil’s advocate: Surplus is only as good as your player values entering the season, which almost becomes irrelevant the second the season starts because player values change constantly due to production.

Note to @OttoGraphs: we should try to capture something like @eamuscatuli Surplus Calc for a large sample of leagues (frozen) just before the season starts and then revisit at season’s end to see what % of those teams actually have success.

1 Like

There is no doubt in my mind that surplus is the primary component of team success in ottoneu, but your point that surplus is only is as good as the player values used is exactly right. The teams with the highest surplus per the Surplus Calc may not have fared as well as expected last year, but that would be more an issue with the projections than with the concept of surplus. It’s one of the reasons I always harp on everyone to not treat the $ values included as gospel.

1 Like

A couple of additional items to consider. It isn’t just the values. It is also the distribution of the surplus across your roster. A $1 1B with $5 in surplus that is stuck behind 2 other 1B is not all that useful during the season but looks good in the calculator. Also, teams with zero prospect assets may appear stronger based on surplus despite the fact that those prospect assets allow teams to improve dramatically once the season starts.

3 Likes

Absolutely right, and I’ve mentioned both those quirks in the past when discussing surplus and the calculator. A 100% literal focus on acquiring surplus (based on the default calc values) is probably not harmful for a beginner, but it’s not a good idea for veterans that know roster construction and in season management are very important for success.

My goals with the surplus calc were twofold:

  1. Share the framework of a system I personally used with all ottoneu owners, in case they might find it valuable

  2. Provide a baseline for ottoneu beginners that may be intimidated by the vagaries of how to calculate player values, and how to evaluate keepers/offseason trades/etc.

2 Likes