Planning on cutting a lot of players. Is this bad?

Hi folks. I have a “takeover” team that I took over post arbitration, keepers, and draft last year. As such, I don’t have a lot of keeper “value,” at least not based on what the FG auction calculator spit out. Is it a really big “problem” if I end up with 15 players (and that would be keeping some questionable guys, if you just look at value) and go into the draft needing 10 players just to fill out my active roster? I’ll have lots of money but need the most players.

Long time FLB player but first time in Ottoneu. Just wondering if there is an “average” amount of players the typical team keeps and/or if because of the nature of Ottoneu there is a different way to think of value. If the player’s value is less than what my keeper salary for him would be, he goes, right? Or not?

Thanks in advance!

IMO, you shouldn’t feel rushed to cut your players in Ottoneu. You have until Jan 31st to cut them without penalty. Just because you don’t value a player doesn’t mean someone else doesn’t. Shop around players to see if you can get something back for them you might want.

But I feel like you might get differing opinions on who to cut. Some owners will stick to only “surplus value” in making their cuts. Others will look at roster construction as well and may keep someone if they don’t have surplus value but fills a hole they feel they may not fill in auction.

Players typically cost more in the draft

Your budget won’t go as far as you’d expect

Trading will bring the best value and it’s more fun

There’s no right answer on how many players to keep. If the league has been around more than two years, you can expect to pay +30% or up for the best and a lot of the mid tier players because of league inflation. I also would be hesitant to trust the FG auction calculator, it sometimes gives strange values for ottoneu (I’d start with the surplus calculator values, but even those I wouldn’t trust totally). And steamer is really dependent on playing time, which is murky this time of year. Player values actually can fluctuate a lot through the offseason if you’re just using steamer.

So I’d wait as long as possible to cut. Trade as much as possible, because other owners value players very differently. But if at the end of the day you only take 15 players to auction that’s totally fine.

Thanks to all who responded thus far. I understand about waiting and trading. Trust me, I get it. I have no plans on dropping anyone right now. I also agree that projections are hard (I too have never really been happy with the systems). And I understand the inflation aspect (the number 30% helps me out a lot…is that about right for inflation in other people’s experiences?). Again, not a fantasy rookie. Just an Ottoneu one.

Thanks again for the help.


You never know when someone will offer you a trade for a player that you assumed was a surefire cut

Any inflation % currently shown on the Surplus Calculator represents a sort of worst case/high end number, since the SC assumes that only players with $ values greater than salary (surplus assets) are kept (unless you make manual overrides). It’s a given that more players will be kept than the SC assumes, and that will drive inflation down a bit. Depending on the league and the current inflation shown, I usually assume inflation will end up 5-15% lower than the SC states, so in your case I’d probably assume 20%.

See here for my article discussing average inflation by league age:

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Those are my favorite kinds of trades.

I picked up a team last season that sounds similar to yours. Obviously you don’t cut anyone until Jan. 31st because one man’s garbage is another man’s treasure. I was surprised how many marginal guys I was able to move in about 6 off season trades. Don’t be surprised if other teams come at you.

Second, be willing to take on salary even for slightly overpriced guys. I tabbed several high priced guys coming off mediocre or underpeformed years: Rendon, Greinke, Schoop, Posey, and then nabbed Harper on 1/30.

If you accept reasonable trades, you’ll gain the reputation of being someone who accepts reasonable trades and other offers will come.

EDIT: After tradeing for the above mentioned guys, I kept 15 players and went into the auction with $190 to spend. Finished 2nd in the league.