Surplus value versus age

Hey folks.

(I hope I am posting this in the correct location.)

In regards to trade value, how do you judge the age of a player who is still performing at a high level versus their surplus value?

If needed, I can provide some particulars, but I didn’t want to get long-winded.

Thank you.

I use projections that incorporate age into the valuation. I don’t make a post hoc adjustment based on age.

Generally speaking, I only look at the next three years worth of projections to assess a player for two reasons. First, projections over longer time horizons aren’t really that accurate. Second, in practice most players don’t have substantial surplus value after 3 off-season cycles (at least in allocation leagues).

If you’re calculating surplus values for future years, don’t forget to apply a discount rate when valuing future surplus values. The discount rate is going to depend on a couple of things, probably the most important of which is when your competitive time horizon is. But that’s a whole other post.


Thank you for the feedback.

I’m trying to gauge the value of a mid-thirties pitcher for a counter to a trade proposal, and wanted to make sure I wasn’t overvaluing his surplus value in relation to his age.