Dreaming on Vlad Guerrero, Jr

LuckyStrikes
Sun, 27 May 2018 20:18:11 +0000
Player Profiles

Vlad Guerrero Jr. (age 19) currently has a .507 wOBA in AA at age 19, which may be the greatest start to AA at that age ever (someone can research and verify).

There is rightly a lot of debate about about when you should consider trading elite @prospects (if ever), and Vlad, Jr. has been the talk of the community for several weeks as he is highly coveted before his eventual debut. What could he actually do in Ottoneu FGPTS?

I looked at the career average production of a few hitters who seem like they could be similar (limited to 1B/3B) to Vlad, Jr., just to get a gauge of the range of possibilities:

Victor Martinez: 5.51 P/G FGPTS career average (9.1% BB%, 11% K%, .354 wOBA)
Adrian Beltre: 5.53 P/G FGPTS career average (7.0% BB%, 14.1% K%, .351 wOBA)
Edwin Encarnacion: 5.8 P/G FGPTS career average (11.1% BB%, 16.8% K%, .365 wOBA)
Freddie Freeman: 6.22 P/G FGPTS career average (11.4% BB%, 20.4% K%, .375 wOBA)
Miguel Cabrera: 7.11 P/G FGPTS career average (11.2% BB%, 17% K%, .400 wOBA)
Joey Votto: 7.29 P/G FGPTS career average (16.2% BB%, 17.6% K%, .411 wOBA)

Vlad Guerrero (Sr.): 7.25 P/G FGPTS career average (8.1% BB%, 10.9% K%, .390 wOBA)
Albert Pujols: 7.20 P/G FGPTS career average (11.1% BB%, 10.3% K%, .394 wOBA)

Arbitrarily, I will designate the 8.0+ P/G as “elite” production when it comes to 1B/3B hitters, which is on average around a .430+ wOBA per season. Votto has achieved 8.0+ three times; Miggy twice, Beltre once (rounding up his 2004 season), and Vlad Sr. once (2000).

Pujols accomplished the .430+ wOBA six (6) times, including four seasons in a row (2003 - 2006). Perhaps more relevant, Pujols averaged 8.23 P/G FGPTS over his first five seasons, including his 7.64 P/G age 21 rookie season in 2001 (.423 wOBA).

Peak Pujols is the best hitter I have ever seen. Vlad, Jr. looks like a monster, but Pujols is his absolute (99% percentile) peak, and the likelihood of reaching that peak is pretty slim based on the notion that Vlad, Jr. is probably a little less athletic than Pujols was at the same age.

It seems lazy, but just based on this quick look, Vlad Guerrero Sr. actually looks like the best offensive comp (not counting speed) for Vlad, Jr.'s potential career, with Adrian Beltre probably the best floor projection. Either way, Vlad, Jr. is in excellent company and looks like a HOF candidate before he even debuts.

What separates Vlad, Jr. in Ottoneu from almost all other prospects is the fact that he looks like he will hit (like Pujols) productively the minute he arrives.

2 posts - 2 participants

Read full topic