Thanks, I liked yours too! I was also interested in TJ, he’s a per-minute stud in this format and will be great for you in the weeks I inevitably lose Caris to injury. I had Kevin Porter at $18, same range as you.
1 Like
We just drafted tonight. I might have"miss-named" our league but we are right here.
So far so good. Crazy to see the “top ten” guys fly off the board in the 90-110 ranges. Jokic went for $113, Giannis for $100 and Doncic for $108. We will see how the whole “$1” play works. Certainly in baseball that is where the winning happens… that $1 Kevin Gausman or $1 Brandon Crawford (Go Giants!). In hoops, with 9 roster spots per week, it’ll be interesting to see how it all goes.
The Hopsmackers (The Commish)
Is Jokic the NBA’s version of Trout?
I’d say he’s more like deGrom because he can actually live up to his salary 
This more accurately describes Trout over the last 10 seasons.
Man this metaphor could go deep if you wanna talk about absolutely best player absolutely worth high cost but very hard to build a winner around … I think it might be easier or more possible to win with expensive Jokic than the last three-four seasons of Trout…
1 Like
My value projections had Jokic as a $108 player in traditional leagues, so yeah he’s been going for over a little bit of what he’s worth per the projections. Though he is projected with 4,500 total traditional points at 58.2 points per game. That’s still 500 more points than the 2nd most valuable player (Giannis) and 5 more per game. Jokic has a 3.6 z-score (!).
No doubt that he’s going for a hefty price, but he’s projected to score almost double a $25-30 player like Isiah Stewart or Terry Rozier. If you can fill the rest of your lineup with value guys who can get 30 p/g, it’s very much doable to win with Jokic.
Another interesting question is if you could win with two $100+ players. Obviously it’s about finding replacement value at that point, but I think that would be more of a challenge.
I’ve got Jokic at $117 (9 Categories), which is right around his average ($118, with minimum of $113 and maximum of $127). Next was Giannis at $105. I went a little over that for him last night ($112), mostly because he was–by far–the best superstar remaining on the board at that point in the auction.
Another interesting question is if you could win with two $100+ players.
I think that the only way that this works is if a critical mass of the rest of the league is overspending for the remaining $70+ players so that there are good values for players going for a significant discounts later on (e.g., a $50 going for ~$30). And you probably need some good fortune with injuries, since you’re probably not going to have good depth if you’re allocating $200+ to just two players.
FWIW, my second most expensive player after Giannis was LaVine ($41; I had him valued at $57). In retrospect, I wish that I had grabbed one ~$50 player instead of two of the $25 guys I got. But at least I have some decent depth for if/when the injury bug(s) strikes.
1 Like
I just couldn’t do it. My highest guy went for $54 and I got a TON of em.
Hops
Jokic had 25% more Traditional Points last year than the #2/3 players (Westbrook/Giannis) so if guys like Harden, Luka, Giannis are going for ~$100 then Jokic is certainly worth $110-125.
Dude is a C who is a great FT shooter, top-10 in scoring with an eFG% like Curry’s, an assist rate like Chris Paul’s, more rebounds than Embiid.
What’s more impressive:
Jokic last year–top 10 in scoring, rebounds and assists–while doing it with only a 29.6% usage rate and a .647 TS%
OR
Westbrook’s MVP year where he averaged a triple double but needed a 41.7% usage rate to accomplish it on a .554 TS%?
I’m pretty surprised that Jokic is not higher than he is in betting markets for MVP this year considering he’s 25 and likely to improve.
Is this the case? My understanding of NBA aging curves is that players achieve their peak at 25, it’s plateaus for a few years, and then they decline after age 27. In baseball, initial research had the peak at 27 (although more recent research shows it’s actually a little younger), but the aging curves that I’ve seen suggest an NBA player’s peak begins at 25.
But I agree that he should be worth 10-15% more than the next highest player. I’m just less sure that he’s going to get better.
Plenty of great players peak after 25. Jokic, I’d guess, will be the same since he has old man skills. His game is based on shooting efficiency (incredibly high for a C at non-paint spots on the floor and the lane), passing, court awareness–most of his rebounds are not because he outleaps a more athletic player but because he out-positions more athletic player. I expect we’ve just seen the start from him.