"Upon Further Review"
Relative to the original post, I made some adjustments to the Roster and Scoring settings in the fantasy league that I linked to above.
I did a 10-year study on all the football and baseball occurrences for each scored statistic to use in weighting each category’s points value. I also moved some of the scoring categories to different “success narrative” categories and adjusted the Roster positions to better account for the points distribution of the overall player pool.
And upon even further review, after putting together the 10-year study (but factored after our league’s draft), I’ll be using a slightly different take on this idea (which I am posting as a separate thread) next year.
But to put a bow on this one…
Roster Positions
These are the final settings for rosters:
Offense - QB, WRx3, RBx3, TE, WR/RB/TE, K
Defense - DT, DE, LBx3, CB, S, DB, D, Team DEF/ST
Bench - 5 slots (encourages more FA/Waiver action)
Scoring
Relative to the original post, I’ve moved “Team Defensive 3&Outs Forced” and “Team Defensive 4th Down Stops” to the “HR” narrative category, and I changed “Blocked Kicks” from an individual stat to a Team stat and moved that to the “HR” category as well.
I also decided to figure a “Difficulty” balance for Kickers relative to the FG make/miss ranges (more below). These adjustments raised the points value of both K’s and Team DEF/ST (now with four team-influenced “HR”-weighted categories) to a level where they could now be a factor in any matchup.
Current Fantasy League’s Scoring
Based on the 10-year study for both sports, I made the following points adjustments in the current league (for Extra Points, I only used a 3-year study to account for the rule change on PAT ball placement).
One important note: I could not find accurate statistics for every category. Where possible, I defaulted to Yahoo’s stats and averaged-out for any years that were unaccounted for. Ultimately, as each category is a “basket” of stats that are then weighted to baseball’s occurrences, and as the vast majority of stats that can be found are accurate, I didn’t consider any estimates to be major factors on the formula as a whole.
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“AB” Success Narrative (-0.1 or -1)
Things that start a play or describe an unsuccessful Offensive play
Categories: Passes Attempted, Rushes Attempted, Incomplete Passes, Interceptions Thrown, Passer Sacks, Fumbles, Fumbles Lost- 10-Yr BASEBALL occurrences: 1,657,173
- 10-Yr FOOTBALL occurrences: 406,176
- ‘Fantasy Universe Balance Ratio’: 0.245 (406176/ 1657173)
- Fantasy Football Category Scoring Weights: -0.0245 or -0.245 (0.245 * -0.1 or -1)
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“H” Success Narrative (0.56 or 5.6)
Basic measures for Offensive and Defensive success
Categories: Completed Passes, Receptions, Passes Defended, Tackles Solo, Tackles Assisted- 10-Yr BASEBALL occurrences: 424,665
- 10-Yr FOOTBALL occurrences: 581,827
- ‘Fantasy Universe Balance Ratio’: 0.7299 (424665/ 581827)
- Fantasy Football Category Scoring Weights: 0.4087 or 4.087 (0.7299 * 0.56 or 5.6)
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“2B” Success Narrative (0.29 or 2.9)
Plays that describe an additional degree of Offensive and Defensive success
Categories: Receiving Yards, Tackle for Loss, Defensive Sack, Fumbles Forced- 10-Yr BASEBALL occurrences: 84,150
- 10-Yr FOOTBALL occurrences: 1,214,160
- ‘Fantasy Universe Balance Ratio’: 0.0693 (84150/ 1214160)
- Fantasy Football Category Scoring Weights: 0.02 or 0.2 (0.0693 * 0.29 or 2.9); Rec Yards translation= 49.75 or 4.975 YDS = 1pt
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“3B” Success Narrative (0.57 or 5.7)
Plays that describe a another additional degree of Offensive and Defensive success
Categories: Receiving 1st Down, Defensive Interception, Defensive Fumble Recovered- 10-Yr BASEBALL occurrences: 8,754
- 10-Yr FOOTBALL occurrences: 68,181
- ‘Fantasy Universe Balance Ratio’: 0.1284 (8754/ 68181)
- Fantasy Football Category Scoring Weights: 0.0732 or 0.732 (0.1284 * 0.57 or 5.7)
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“HR” Success Narrative (0.94 or 9.4)
Plays that describe the “ultimate” Offensive and Defensive success (not factoring Offensive TD’s)
Categories: Passing 1st Down, Rushing 1st Down, Defensive TD, Safety, Kick-off & Punt Return TD (Team), 3&Outs Forced (Team), 4th Down Stops (Team), Blocked Kick (Team)- 10-Yr BASEBALL occurrences: 49,490
- 10-Yr FOOTBALL occurrences: 108,364
- ‘Fantasy Universe Balance Ratio’: 0.4567 (49490/ 108364)
- Fantasy Football Category Scoring Weights: 0.4293 or 4.293 (0.4567 * 0.94 or 9.4)
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“BB+HBP” Success Narrative (0.3 or 3)
The factor that describes how much the ball was moved in either the Offense’s or Defense’s positive direction
Categories: Passing Yards, Rushing Yards, Return Yards, Turn-Over Return Yards- 10-Yr BASEBALL occurrences: 168,175
- 10-Yr FOOTBALL occurrences: 2,501,468
- ‘Fantasy Universe Balance Ratio’: 0.0672305 (168175/ 2501468)
- Fantasy Football Category Scoring Weights: 0.020169 or 0.20169; Rec Yards translation= 49.58 or 4.958 YDS = 1pt
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“SB” Success Narrative (0.19 or 1.9)
Events that “steal” additional points after an Offensive drive
Categories: 2-Point Conversions, Extra Points Made, FG’s Made (within different ranges)- 3-Yr BASEBALL occurrences: 7,569
- 3-Yr FOOTBALL occurrences: 6,014
- ‘Fantasy Universe Balance Ratio’: 0.7946 (6014/ 7569)
- Fantasy Football Category Scoring Weights…
- XP Made and 2-Pt Convserions: 0.151 or 1.5097
- For additional details on FG Ranges, see the section below…
- FG Made, 0-19 Yards: 1.375 or 13.753
- FG Made, 20-29 Yards: 0.163 or 1.634
- FG Made, 30-39 Yards: 0.243 or 2.434
- FG Made, 40-49 Yards: 0.373 or 3.728
- FG Made, 50+ Yards: 1.171 or 11.711
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“CS” Success Narrative (-0.28 or -2.8)
Events that describe the unsuccessful attempt to “steal” additional points after an Offensive drive
Categories: Extra Points Missed, FG’s Missed (within different ranges)- 3-Yr BASEBALL occurrences: 2,999
- 3-Yr FOOTBALL occurrences: 688
- ‘Fantasy Universe Balance Ratio’: 0.2294 (688/ 2999)
- Fantasy Football Category Scoring Weights…
- XP Missed: -0.0642 or -0.642
- For additional details on FG Ranges, see the section below…
- FG Missed, 0-19 Yards: -9.2926 or -92.926
- FG Missed, 20-29 Yards: -1.0197 or -10.197
- FG Missed, 30-39 Yards: -0.1808 or -1.808
- FG Missed, 40-49 Yards: -0.04598 or -0.4598
- FG Missed, 50+ Yards: -0.02027 or -0.2027
All of that said, I used the study and considerations for a setup that is better scaled to the wRC baseball formula relative to a hypothetical league’s “Replacement Level” for each position and devised a different (“better” fantasy) scoring system detailed in this second thread.
Field Goal Made & Missed Difficulty Scales
As a way of increasing and scaling the scoring production of K’s, I created a “difficulty” weighting for the five different FG ranges available. This rating was factored within the “SB/CS” weighted points formula above.
The “Difficulty” scales went 1-3-5-7-9 for each successive “FG Make” range and 9-7-5-3-1 for each successive “FG Missed” range. To factor the point value of each range, I took the “FG/SB” balance ratio and multiplied by the 0.19 SB Point value and the corresponding ‘Difficulty Factor’ (and made the same calculations for the ‘CS’ category’s FG Miss ranges). I then divided this number by the rate of occurrence for each FG within the specified range (e.g., # of 0-19 FG’s / # of total FG’s). This number was then divided by 10 to bring the value back within range for K’s.
One clear difference to note here is the points differential for FG’s made in the 0-19 Yards range, which are valued significantly above all other FG’s made between 20-49 Yards. The mathematical reasoning is that there are fewer occurrences within that range than with any other. The other factor here is that no FG attempt within that range has been missed within the time-frame of the study (and as such, I had to ‘pretend’ like one was in order to set a reasonable point-value for any missed attempt); as a result, the points penalty for any miss within that short range is more significant than any other point value for any other FG range, make or miss.
As it relates to ‘real life’, however, the “philosophical” reasoning for this could be that every team’s scoring probability jumps significantly in the Red Zone- and that is what’s reflected in the Pts value of FG’s within that range. In other words, any FG’s attempted within 0-19 Yards are pretty much a given because the Offense was so successful at moving the ball to a spot where the K shouldn’t miss (and if he does, the ‘levered’ trade-off is reflective of that); so, any points produced within that range are practically ‘automatic’. As it relates to each individual K and their influence on any fantasy matchup, however, because there are generally less than a dozen attempts within that range in the NFL every season, points scored within the range still have a relatively small influence on any game and the K’s season as a whole.
Initial/Post-Draft Impressions
First, Yahoo’s draft platform on draft night for the league linked above was incredibly slow and choppy and it was difficult to have an effective Auction Draft. So, negative marks on them for that.
Second, my impression on the draft strategies for most in the room was similar to what you might expect in a more “regular” fanatasy football league; big money was spent on offensive skill (non-QB) players while the end of the draft was more or less reserved for Defensive players, even though the two roles score similarly. Many teams also didn’t reserve much cash for a backup-QB, which (I think) is considerably more important for a league with this scoring.
Considering the scoring dynamic between players/roles as well as between football/baseball, it seems that QB’s score similarly per game as SP’s (~15-40+ pts per) while everyone else scores similar to Hitters (per game). However, in terms of the week-to-week roster/scoring balance, I expect the offensive positions to be a little more volatile (like Pitchers are in fantasy baseball) while the defensive side will score more consistently each game (like Hitters).
In a way, that’s not unlike a fundamental difference between the two sports: Outs are a given in baseball (or, the “Pitching” side is expected to be more successful than not- the volatility comes when the defense doesn’t secure the ‘expected’ Outs) while in Football it’s all about Yards and 1st Downs (or, the “Offensive” side is expected to be more successful than not- it’s just a degree of how successful they are vs the other team’s defense). Because of this, I expect most managers to continue to roster just enough defensive players to field a full defensive lineup while using all of their Bench on offensive ‘matchup streaming’ options. However, because of injuries and Bye weeks, I’m expecting there to be almost as much value in having extra defensive player on the bench in lieu of extra offensive players (and so far after the first two weeks of the season, it seems as though more Defensive players have a “Questionable” or “Out” status than Offensive players in any given week- so it might be necessary to expand on Bench spots in the future).
Looking ahead to how the league might play out, my expectation is that it will be those minor differences in a player’s production relative to his average or expected output that will make the difference in our fantasy matchups. I’m interested to see how many instances there are where a team’s QB performs significantly worse than his opponent’s but the production of the other players on the roster is enough to make-up the difference, and I’ll be paying special attention to how team’s play their defensive rosters. I’ll also be watching the balance of the players available in the FA pool.
OK- that’s a wrap for this setup. Now onto a formula evolved from this one…