2016 Prospect Resources

Devoted to talking about the next up and coming baseball prospects and their value within the context of Ottoneu. Rankings, reports, values - all here. Discuss!
The Prospect Scorecard
Prospect Classes in Ottoneu (Brad Johnson)
2016 Ottoneu Prospect Rankings (FGPTS)
OttoGraphs Episode 3: Interview with KATOH’s Chris Mitchell
Prospect Public Folder

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Sounds like Nomar Mazara might be getting the call-up: https://twitter.com/1053thefan/status/718993943921324032

Well that was quick: 3-4 with HR. Nice debut for Mazara

Anyone own any prospects lower than full season ball? That generally seems to be the cutoff for non-draftees, if not double-A, but I’m curious if anyone outside of a 5MiLB league is taking the leap on a guy who could be three or four years away.

I’m sure you won’t be surprised by my response, but I don’t think there is much reason to roster any prospect in ottoneu that is that far away, outside of the 5MiLB leagues. Maybe a guy like Moncada the year he signed would be an exception, a player that immediately becomes a top 10-15 prospect, and has a chance at shooting up the system.

Agreed, although you definitely see this with guys like Brendan Rodgers. I mean, he was the number one pick, but at what point is it worthwhile when he’s going to hold that roster spot for so long. Last year for instance, I saw savvy owners grabbing him for $5 or so, but really only to flip him to teams that fell out of the race.

Maybe Rodgers doesn’t fit the mold, but originally I was thinking of anyone lower than high-A, but he’s the easy one that springs to mind below that level.

Right, if the question is “when is it worth it to roster and hold a low minors guy for 3+ years” the answer is hardly ever. If the question is “is it worth it to roster a guy like Brendan Rodgers as a trade chip?” then I would say yes.

I saw some teams pick up Anderson Espinoza late last season (similar to Rodgers), but I agree with @eamuscatuli that it’s almost impossible to hold a guy long enough like that to make him work for your actual team, unless your reasoning is as a trade chip in a league that fawns over prospects more than most. High rankings are great for hype, but you’re still essentially waiting 3+ years for a guy like Espinoza so take his lumps in MLB the first season he’s actually producing on your roster.

I agree with that assertion, despite being a Correa owner in one league. If the goal is to compete, prospects need to be possible impact players. The only issue there is that you can’t get true impact rookies as they will most likely be owned by a perennial rebuilder already, or you’ll have to overpay for them after the amateur draft.

Right. My general philosophy has been that I can almost trade for any player if I want them badly enough, so unless I can identify an impact prospect early for $1, I’d prefer another team hold the risk for several years (talking about A ball players, etc.) and then make a move for them when they get closer to impact. That can be more costly in terms of trade value, but I still think it beats sitting on a roster spot for three years.

Agreed. 40 roster spots may seem like a lot, but to be competitive I think you need at least 35 of those spots filled with productive MLB players to approach game and innings caps due to injuries/off days/etc. That doesn’t leave a lot of roster room for low minors prospects.

Mazara is probably an easy answer at this point, but which pitching and hitting prospect does everyone feel will have the biggest call up impact this season?

Speaking of prospects, @eamuscatuli made this prospect-laden trade today in Bull Durham, picking up AJ Reed and Alex Reyes for Miguel Cabrera. I’m curious how this turns out for both teams, so I’m posting here so we can come back and review in the future:

I think there are quite a few Carlos Correa and Corey Seager owners (and JP Crawford and Alex Reyes and Julio Urias) who would strongly disagree that owning and holding them for three years was a bad idea.

I think there are plenty of other guys who people regret owning and holding.

I’m a big believer in seeing prospects as trade currency and future va
He assets at the same time. I want to own 5-7 of them coming out of a draft, and I’m hoping to only have two to three at most by the next amateur draft. (Hopefully I’ve gotten call ups and/traded a few.)

But I also want cash in the form of about $12-15. So spending 6-9 bucks on a $2 prospects that I don’t trade for at least a $15 player seems like a bad idea to me as well.

If you’re competing it’s hard to sacrifice a roster spot for someone multiple years away which is why I finally had to release Matt Olsen this year and it hurts. However my first year, and the league’s first year, I saw that elite prospects were going really cheap and only being auctioned by me. I ended up with Bryant, Russell, Urias, Giolito, Gallo, Berrios and Polanco all for $1 there were like 4 more but I can’t remember who they were. I finished second in that first year while fielding a team of 28 or 29. The next season I moved everyone not named Bryant or Russell in a series of win-now moves and smoked everyone for the title. Which became my plan in 2015 once I realized they were being undervalued as assets.

Basically, there’s a balance. If you’re going to hold someone for multiple years there needs to be a chance that they are monsters or you are hamstringing yourself.

Yep, I think leagues have now over-corrected on the prospect hype train so they often go for too much now. What a team that would be with all those guys for so cheap, though!

What is the trade value of Bryon Buxton these days in Ottoneu, say in the $12 - $15 range? Just curious of the group thinks it’s high, medium or low? He seems divisive since his talent and scouting reports are off the charts but his production has been non-existent so far.

When I scouted (used loosely - playing college baseball doesn’t make you an expert) Buxton for a couple of sites I didn’t like his approach at the plate and never thought he’d truly hit at the MLB level. He gets very heavy on his front foot and I didn’t see the strength to compensate for that in the rest of his body so I didn’t think he’d get enough balls in the air. I’ve never owned a Buxton share because of it. I think on name recognition alone you could pull a pretty good haul from a player though. Someone like AJ Reed maybe?

The guy I’m watching this season is JD Davis. Kid mashes and at the AFL I came away really impressed with the raw power. He has major K% red flags though but he’s got the same basic offensive profile as Trevor Story but he’s not as athletic.