2017 Projections for FanGraphs Points


#1

I am working on doing FanGraphs points projections based on steamer projections, but there is no HBP or Holds for pitchers. Am I missing something? If not, is there another projection source which includes these? Or are there techniques for compensating for this?

Seems like I’ll severely undervalue relievers if I just leave them out. But I have seen tools elsewhere which seem to have taken account for these somehow (e.g. 2017 early surplus value spreadsheet).


#2

Sorry, my previous response was wrong. HBP is in the Steamer data, but HLDS are not. Custom reports in Fangraphs only available for actual (rather than projected) stats.

The Depth charts projections (combo of Stemaer, Zips and Fangraphs staff, but currently mostly Steamer) has Holds, so that could be a safe start.


#3

Thanks for the tip on depth charts, I’ll likely incorporate that. I just did the CSV export for steamer from FanGraphs, and here is the list of headers:

“Name”,“Team”,“W”,“L”,“ERA”,“GS”,“G”,“SV”,“IP”,“H”,“ER”,“HR”,“SO”,“BB”,“WHIP”,“K/9”,“BB/9”,“FIP”,“WAR”,“RA9-WAR”,“playerid”

I’m not seeing HBP in the data.


#4

the HBP is in the Batter data, as it counts in favor of batters, not against pitchers


#5

OK, and I do see it there. FanGraphs points does include a -3.0 value per HBP for pitchers, that is why I was looking.


#6

So sorry to create confusion; I always have used the Fangraphs Auction Calculator Preset Scoring settings, which do not include HBP scoring for pitchers (probably because it is missing in Steamer Pitcher Projections).

Good to know! Hopefully they are aware of this at Fangraphs.

@eamuscatuli is this common knowledge?


#7

Steamer includes HBP projections (you can see it on the player page), but for whatever reason pitcher HBP is not included on the projections leaderboard for Steamer.

To compensate I always add an assumption that pitchers will have a league average HBP rate (about .0375 per IP), so I typically make a manual adjustment of -.1125 points (-3 pts*.0375 HBP/IP) per IP for all pitchers.