It’s been a while since I’ve posted one of these, but I went ahead and calculated actual 2021 retrospective $ values for FanGraphs points, which you can find below. These are imperfect, and can’t capture things like platoon splits that would give some players a boost, but they’re good enough for government work IMO.
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POB=Points Over Baseline?
Yeah, baseline being approximately the Nth player at a position needed to fill G/IP caps. Offense was weird in 2021, I have the exact same baseline for all non-C hitting positions. For pitching, I use a blended baseline based on how many SP vs RP innings a pitcher had in 2021.
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Thanks Justin @vibbot . I hadn’t seen this sort of retrospective analysis before, and I like it. Of course we all have a sense already of what went right and wrong over the season, but this helps to quantify HOW right and wrong each of those decisions was. For example, my infamous trade of Vlad Jr (613 POB) for France (225) and Nola (226) was indeed a loser, but by less than I might have imagined. I finished 553 points behind the team I traded with, which finished in first. So maaaaybe I wouldn’t have won the league even if I had held onto Vladdy, based on these numbers.
I’m wondering how close the surplus calculator projected 2022 value numbers will be to these hindsight 2021 values. Obviously there will be a lot of variance, but how much is there usually? Also wondering when the next surplus calculator update will happen. Willing to subscribe to patreon to get it. I can never get enough updates. : - )
It would also be cool to plus in these 2021 values and see who had the biggest bargains and busts in each league, and overall across all leagues.
Not to take anything away from Justin’s numbers, but you can also get auction values based on actual stats for every season going back to 2013 using the FG Auction Calculator.
Under “Projection” just selected “20XX YTD.” You can populate FGPts settings automatically (right hand side), although I suggest some modifications to the position numbers to get “better” numbers:
- (2) C
- (8) OF
- (2) MI
- (2) UTIL
- (8) SP
- (6) RP
- (6) Bench
Note: this should add up to 38 (the other 2 are prospects), so adjust budget from $400 to $390 to budget for those prospects and/or spare money after the auction. I’d also suggest setting 1500 IP minimum. Finally, use a 65/35 split (although you can make an argument for anything from 62/38 to 68/32).
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Thanks @walt526 I finally checked out that link to the auction calculator just now. Bookmarking for future use! I’ve used fangraphs for many years and had never even heard of that tool before. Thank you! I followed your “recipe” exactly.
@vibbot what explains the difference between the numbers on a tool like this, and the surplus calculator? Is it pretty much just inflation? I’ve been in the same ottoneu league for several years and our salaries seem higher than what this tool shows.
I think there are some methodology differences between the two calculators, such as how they handle replacement level.
If you use the “experimental” checkbox on the auction calculator, it will boost the high performing players who are expected to miss some playing time, which partially addresses the difference between the two tools.
Also, neither calculator addresses the value of certainty, where Mike Trout gains a few dollars over his projection because his floor is so high, whereas Brandon Crawford loses a few dollars because his floor is replacement level.
What are your thoughts on setting position priority? Thanks.
Last year I set it as follows: C, 2B, OF, 1B, SS, 3B
However, 3B is a bit shallower than it has been in recent seasons, so I might revisit the ordering. I’ll have to look more closely. But it doesn’t really matter what order you have the last four, since their replacement levels are similar. You definitely want to have C and then 2B as the two highest priorities.
As an aside, when I started playing fantasy in the early 1990s, SS was right after C. However, many of the top hitters in the league are now SS. There was a time where Jay Bell, Barry Larkin, and Cal Ripken Jr were the only SS worth a damn. Now you have a guy like Carlos Correa as the 12th best SS (per Steamer). Weirdness.
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