One of my leagues recently had an auction for Cholowsky, and I was surprised by how much he went for (double-digit dollars). I generally don’t pick up recent IRL draft picks for more than $1 because I don’t think they provide much value, unless they’re brought up to the majors very quickly.
Do you find that you usually keep prospects on your ottoneu rosters for multiple years before they debut, or do you eventually drop them before they’ve played an MLB game?
Do prospects generally give a positive dollar return in point production over their first 5 years from being drafted? If not, then you spent at least $15 for zero production, no? (Including salary inflation of $1 per year.)
Are there ottoneu leagues that forbid rostering prospects? I assume those have larger auctions throughout the season as prospects get called up for the MLB debuts?
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prospect values have high variance and it is common for top prospects to be cut as soon as arbitration ~6 months later. i would encourage you not to think about prospects in a linear way - in other words, expecting to get a floor amount of value per dollar invested is generally not the best approach. instead, think about it from a portfolio perspective - for every 10 prospects you buy, 8 will be massive failures but 1-2 may “pay off” the losers in extreme surplus ($10-$15 or more of surplus value for the first 1-2 seasons you hold).
it’s up to your strategy as to how you approach adding prospects (if you are rebuilding vs. trying to win now). personally on my win now team, i am completely ignoring cholowsky as i am trying to win this year and value the replacement roster slot more than using it on a prospect that has no immediate in-season value
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This question led to a dayslong debate on Slack lol.
In short:
- Approach to prospects in strategy varies widely among managers
- You can absolutely drop prospects.
Seconding the “portfolio approach,” I think of the prospect valuation as having a very long tail. For a top prospect who will debut soon, $10+ is totally appropriate. But most of the time I will only roster prospects for $3 or less. I’m rarely doing a “full rebuild” and I would rather spend the money other ways.
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agreed on all of this. the reason why ottoneu is such a rewarding platform is primarily because of the prospects / future additions mechanic. as a gm, it’s ultimately your responsibility to define your strategy (am i trying to win or am i committing to a rebuild), then bid/don’t bid on prospects as it relates to your budget and willingness to buy future value.
niv has mentioned it before on r&b…good rebuilds can (and probably should) take 1.5-2 years or less (ottoneu’s arb system helps with competitive balance). so it is possible to leverage prospect value and turn it into a viable finish within a reasonable amount of time. if a rebuild takes 3+ seasons, that would be an unlikely outcome from my perspective and probably points to more of an issue with the overall strategy or tactical approach by the manager.
for long-term ottoneu success, i do think that mastering the prospects mechanic is a requirement to win, even if you don’t use prospects as a primary way to create surplus for your team. it is a layer deeper than everyday platforms (i.e.; yahoo simple add/drop functionality), but that is also precisely what makes this format more fun for long-term competitive play.
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I often keep prospects for several years and also drop them all the time. Like with anything, it depends on the player.
Overhyped prospects that go for a lot of FAAB during the season usually don’t pay off in the long run though, IMO.
Cholowsky likely went for more than prospects usually do because he’s the type of draft pick that will debut soon.
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