Evaluating Trades

This is my first year playing Ottoneu and came here cause I am a baseball lifer and wanted to play a fantasy game with devoted smart hardcore competitive baseball fans who really play the game like general managers and the salary/budget aspect intrigued me a lot compared to other types of FB…I have been attempting to make more than fair trades the last week and have been turned down constantly…Look at these 2 trade offers and tell me why would somebody turn them down? I want all of your opinions on which side wins the trade…Both of these were not money or salary related at all for why they turned it down

1st Offer Aaron Nola. Edwin Diaz, Marcus Semien. Chris Bassitt and Josh Naylor for
Wander Franco, Andrew Vaugn, Laars Nootbaar, Edward Cabrera and D.L. Hall…The Diaz side was what I offered and was turned down…

2nd Offer Edwin Diaz for Bryan Reynolds and Felix Bautista…The Diaz side was what I offered and was turned down…

Can anyone tell me why an experienced manager in a FG points Ottoneu league would turn down both Diaz sides of these offers if money and salary was not an issue whatsoever…?

Welcome to Ottoneu!

Ultimately, the other owners preferred what they had over your offers, that’s really what it comes down to.

Player salary is central to the strategy of Ottoneu so it is hard to believe that money would not have factored into these decisions. Without knowing anything about the rosters in question, I’d suspect the players you offered were more costly, as they are older, more established players and the ones you are seeking are well known, younger (and likely more affordable) players.

I’ve found the best strategy is to message owners indicating who on their team you have interest in and asking for a list of players on your team they like. This way you can avoid accidentally insulting owners with lopsided offers or accidentally over paying yourself.


The short answer, IMO, is that it is March and everyone just kept or drafted the players they like. So it’s really hard to convince them to move guys.

The slightly longer answer is that I think you might be overvaluing Diaz. In traditional 5x5 leagues he is the first closer off the board and an early pick, valued up there with the top 10 SP and top-tier bats. In Ottoneu points leagues, he isn’t in that tier. elite SP and bats cost $50, $40, or maybe $30. An elite closer costs more like $20. That second offer, for example, I would not give up Bryan Reynolds for Diaz in a 1:1 offer. Reynolds is, IMO, more valuable than Diaz. Others will disagree with that, but even for those who value RP higher than me, the gap from Bautista to Diaz is not nearly big enough to justify Reynolds. You want Bautista + an OF? The OF needs to be like Seth Brown-ish. Not Reynolds.

The first deal I think is probably just too much for March. That other manager really likes Franco, Vaughn, Nootbaar, Cabrera and Hall, most likely. They probably aren’t in love with the others. Given the likely salaries involved, I don’t think most managers would make that trade right now.


the first offer was TLDR…a bit complicated from my perspective and wouldn’t be valuable to me unless the pieces exchanged very specifically addressed positional needs of my team without creating others

in the simpler second offer, the projected points from Diaz and Bautista are somewhat comparable and the addition of Reynolds swings the value clearly in favor of the team getting the OF/RP…Reynolds also reduces the risk associated with CL for the team receiving the OF/CL…

so I wouldn’t do the work needed to sort out offer one and I’d only accept offer 2 if I was getting Bautista/Reynolds

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Both managers who I made those offers to were not involved in any other deals for rgese players…I was offering these higher priced all star players because I took over a team with $552 in debt and am still having problems with budhet even after cutting big time salaries, so the oremise for my trading was to get my salary and budget back down to a decent amount yet also acquire young talent…The other two managers on each offer had lots of money to play with and the results of these trades was not going to affect them financially or roster wise…

I would also add, seconding what @legendaryan said above, that money and salary are ALWAYS an issue. They are often THE issue.

Looking at average prices on that first deal, Nola is $34, Diaz is $20, Semien is $22, Bassitt is $9, Naylor $5. on the other side, Wander is $24, Vaughn is $11, Nootbaar is $4, Cabrera is $5 and Hall if $4.

That offer asks the other team to take on $90 and give up $44, taking on $46 in salary. Even if there is a loan, that is a huge long-term shift in their roster. And if their prices don’t match their averages, that means they are more or less valuable, inversely related to price.

Reynolds BTW has an average of $13 but is going for over $20 in his last ten pickups, so he is, on his own, basically equal to Diaz.

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That last sentence doesn’t make sense - you wanted them to take on salary, that has an impact on them financially and roster-wise.

Has this league already done the auction?

Both managers were not going even close to their 400 limit…Why would the manager in Trade Offer 1 not want a top 10 SP, #1 closer in MLB a the #2 if not #1 2B in MLB who also has a dual role, not to mention a solid 2-3 SP and a 1B/OF that has decent powe if it was not going to affect his salary at all or his roster construction?

In our league Reynolds salary is $21 and Diaz’s is $27…Nola’s was $31, Semien’s was s18, Franco’s salary on the other side was $31 which can’t see after the disastrous year he had in 22 that his salary would be this high nut the manager was losing this ridiculous salarybyet hecstill said no…

It’s not really possible to properly evaluate the trades without knowing all the salaries involved (especially the first trade). Unless the salaries on each side are exactly equal, it’s not really accurate to say that it won’t affect the other side’s salary or roster construction.

It also seems that you are valuing Diaz much higher than the consensus.

Having said that, $31 Nola and $18 Semien are nice pieces. But we can’t evaluate the whole trade without more information.


Diaz at $27 is very expensive. Wander could put up a huge season and be a keeper at $33 next year but there’s no path to Diaz being viable at $29 next season.

You also keep saying it has no salary impact but it does. Cap space is valuable. Inexpensive players have more long-term value.

You’re asking the right questions but you need to listen to the answers: neither of those deals are necessarily good for the other team. The Bautista/Reynolds one isn’t close to fair and the larger deal you’re asking the other manager to make a really big bet on 2023 at the expense of a lot of future value. Is totally reasonable that he wouldn’t want to do that, especially if he’s high on the players he already has.


There are a few tools available to those new to the format to calibrate their sense of what a fair trade is.

  1. You can use the trade evaluator on the surplus calculator to see if the values are approximately equal: Ottoneu Surplus Calculator 2023

  2. You can search for trades involving the key players you are attempting to trade or acquire in the trade thread to get a sense of their market value. Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball Official Trade Thread Note that the format (i.e. Fangraphs points, 5x5, etc) matters significantly in assessing value. It is also important to note whether the trade is pre-cut deadline or post-draft.

  3. Additionally, you can scroll to the bottom of the individual player pages to see recent trades involving that player. The caveat regarding pre- or post-draft trades applies here as well.

Ultimately, even if you offer what appears to be market or even above market value for a player, the individual economics of your league or values that other teams place on players may make them decline your offer.

I have declined “fair” trades just because I like the players I have more than the players I’m offered. Sometimes this has to do with perceived value or upside, and sometimes it is just based on player/team preference. If another team is not interested in what you are selling, it is best to either lower your expected return, or move on to a different potential trading partner.