Extrapolating team performance

Hi all–someone will have a good answer here I’m sure.

I understand I can look at past finishes in Ottoneu 4x4 leagues (like mine) and see what kind of aggregate stats are required in each of the 8 categories to win. I understand I can apply the projected stats to my current roster, including a few targets for filling draft day holes, and see how my 23-man roster is likely to fare against the standards of league winners.

What I need some help with is what to add to the aggregation of those 23 players’ stats to reflect streaming, playing matchups, etc. I realize that depends upon the league (and my commitment), but can you offer any guidelines? Should my current roster bring me to the 90% percentile of league winners, for example? Thanks.

This is a great question. By no means do I have the perfect method, but I can explain at least how I approach this in the offseason in my 5x5 / 4x4 leagues (but focusing on 4x4 the rest of the way here for this response). My goal when planning for draft/keeper deadline from a projected standings perspective is to be balanced and strong in all 4 hitting categories of 4x4, since punting isn’t feasible. That means setting targeted totals for the categories based on year-end standings (which you know and sounds like you have a method for). Since those standings are based on a full season’s worth of PA’s, that’s how I look to compare my projected stat totals against.

What I do is build a starting lineup and start aggregating their stats in the calculation totals. I then also consider my projected starting lineup’s total PA’s and compare that against 7,800 expected PAs for a full season (7,800 is a number I came up with a while ago with and it’s probably been a minute since I improved it so there may be better estimates). This way, if I have 5,500 PAs from players in my lineup, and I know my target in HR is 315 HR for a full season, I should be near 222 HR. Obviously as you insert more players into your projected starting lineup you can have a more complete view, but it at least gives you an idea of where you are tracking in all categories (or really just the counting stat ones because this doesn’t change the projections on the rate stats) as you fill out your projected lineup.

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