Khris Davis: $16
Keep or Cut?
I think Davis is a no-doubt keep at his average Ottoneu price of $10 @owensurett35 but I’ve set the keep/cut line at $16 here because I see him owned for much closer to that in my own leagues and think he’s a hard off-season decision at this price. 40 homers is 40 homers though…
If you think he’ll get back to his career average of 7.2% BB then he’s going to push 1000 points next year. The game power is a legit 75 tool and I’ve been touting him as a 40 homer guy since the day he was traded, which is probably the only prediction I got right anywhere. I’m keeping probably up to $22 if not a few bucks more.
His walk rate in the 2nd half has been 10.2%. He was horrible in April but has otherwise been very strong every month since. So far a .344 ISO and .601 SLG in 2nd half.
Yeah that’s why I have no problem projecting him at a near 1,000 point player next year. I haven’t done my values for next season at all but I think he’s going to be a mistake cut by a lot of people in leagues.
Well, the robot @eamuscatuli voted cut, and he sways a lot of off season “Vibber” values…
I don’t feel super confident about my Cut vote, but my very rough Steamer 600 Update $ values pegs Davis right at $16, and ZiPS is a bit more pessimistic than Steamer for Davis. I think $15-$16 is basically par.
Steamer 600 regressed him to 25 homers. That’s not happening.
2016 - 42 HR/600 pace
2015 - 36 HR/600 pace
2014 - 24 HR/600 pace
2013 - 43 HR/600 pace
Like I said, I think there is going to be a ton of mistake cuts of him this offseason and hopefully I’ll be there to pick up the scraps.
The update Steamer 600 actually has Davis at 31 HR
Where do you find the updates? I only saw the projection by clicking the link on FanGraphs under projections
You can find them under the Projections tab on the FG homepage (it won’t be one of the ones that pops up underneath when you hover over the tab, but it will be there if you click through- Steamer600 Update). These projections are basically current Steamer RoS projections, but applied with 600 PA/ 200 IP. What’s nice about these is they include players that are hurt/still in the minors that wouldn’t otherwise have RoS projections.
Very interesting article that shines a positive light on Khris Davis: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/201699298/new-statcast-metric-barrels-has-best-hit-balls/
This is why I really like the Keep/Cut discussions in this community this year…constant updates change context all winter, and the conversation can continue to flow. Value is a moving target…
How about at $18? Does the extra $2 matter much to anyone?