New Statcast Data Impact on Linear-Weighted Scoring in Ottoneu?

This article from Dave Cameron today is pretty fascinating, as is the possible implication of WAR-changing stats and values on Ottoneu points scoring formats. Will a HR allowed by a P always be -12.3 points if it’s found that, under new Statcast information, it really was not up to the pitcher (like the Ethier HR example in the article)?

According to the new Statcast Hit Probability calculation, a ball hit at that exit velocity and launch angle is an out 95% of the time. Because of a favorable wind and the fact that the ball was hit in one of the few stadiums where a 353-foot fly ball to left center would clear the fence, Ethier actually got his first home run off a left-hander in three years.

In terms of value, what do you do with that play? Ethier’s home run put a run on the board for the Dodgers, so — ignoring the fact that we don’t have postseason WAR right now — our calculation would give him the same credit for that play as if he had launched a 500-foot bomb onto Waveland Avenue. And our pitching WAR would correspondingly crush Jon Lester, who gave up the home run, even though Lester did his job and induced contact that is almost always an out.

Interesting to think about how this could change Ottoneu…

If we started giving out points based on what deserved to happen I think I’d quit fantasy baseball forever.

I don’t disagree with this, but it’s not that far-fetched to imagine a future where a very tight MVP or Cy Young race is decided by some of these “what could have happened” metrics…