I’m going into Year 2 as an Ottoneu player for the first time. And I joined a league by claiming a team, and the league has been around since 2021. I’m having a hard time planning my team ahead of the auction: basically, I’m struggling to evaluate my roster beyond “players below the avg price = good value.” I’ve tried auction calculators but I don’t feel like I really understand how inflation works in my particular league. I read the keep/cut articles on Rotographs, but where might be the best place to get insights that can help me evaluate my roster? Is that where Slack can be useful? Any additional wisdom will be greatly appreciated.
I’m also pretty new to Ottoneu, and the slack has been a great resource for things like this. There is a dedicated channel on the Slack for questions on your overall roster, as well as a channel for specific players.
From what I’ve seen, average value isn’t the best measuring stick for looking at 2025. A lot of players are consistently costing more than the value they actually created, for instance, because they didn’t live up to the hype in 2024 (i.e. Christopher Morel)
This surplus calculator is what I use, and I think it’s a better basis for decisions, since it’s basing value off of 2025 projections: https://www.patreon.com/posts/early-2025-115367432
I agree Justin VIbber’s Surplus Calculator is a great tool. I have found, even in a league that has been around a few years, the fangraph auction calculators are very useful as a starting place. One key is to make sure you tailor the settings to your league format. In general, players below the auction calc values, will be good values. It is not unusual as the years go by that the higher priced players go for greater than the auction calculator projections. In addition, Chad Young and Jake Mailhot have started releasing their own projected values by postition as articles on Fangraphs. They just released their OF projections this past week and will likely release the remainer of their projections over the next few weeks before the keeper deadline. I find having multiple valuation sources is helpful as well. Best of luck!
All the resources listed here were pivotal to helping me find my footing in Ottoneu. It can take a while to get a source of proportion on player values. However, what I find players differ most on – and this is what makes the game exciting – is higher level strategy and values. Do you most value competing every year? Do you want to build a team that crushes opponents once every five years, but tank the rest of the time? Do you like dynasty-like continuity or starting fresh each year? Is it important to roster players you like? Do you like making trades just to make them? What is fun to you? I tend to value bounceback candidates highly compared to prospects – this is not a wrong or right way to play. I tend not to roster relievers at high price points. I love L/R platoons but not home/away ones. All these are going to be senses and tendencies you develop over time, interacting with what your media sources are as a fan, how active and interactive you want to be, etc. I know this is kind of a non-answer but I also think it’s the best answer I could give!
I appreciate this perspective!
One other thing to remember regarding Avg Salaries - most teams have not gone through all their cuts yet. So those average salaries will drop as teams start cutting their over-priced players.
Yes – experienced players will generally tend to wait as long as they can to make cuts, especially borderline ones, as they seek to recoup trade value via “my cuts for your cuts” (where opinion on keep/cut differs) or may keep/cut decisions based on the apparent draft pool (i.e., if you have a $49 Freeman you’re on the fence about, you might be more likely to cut him if a lot of higher-end first basemen are entering the draft pool, or if the teams with a lot of money already have first base solutions).
Yeah that’s where I feel I am right now - waiting a long time to make my cuts but also not really sure how to determine whether a guy on the fence stays/goes because other teams are doing the same thing right now. I can see myself, on 2/1, regretting keeping so many average guys OR feeling like I cut too aggressively and am spending to fill gaps as much as I am chasing improvement. I guess I need to just keep studying on this.