Rookies are now included! I pulled their stats from hashtag basketball’s projections and incorporated them in with the projections I have for veterans that are derived from DARKO and DRIP. I don’t love using two different sources, but I still trust DARKO and DRIP over hashtag basketball in general, so this is what we’re rolling with for now.
Here are the rookies that have a positive projected value for any format. As you can see, categories is pretty tough on rookies while there’s more hope for them in the points formats. Wemby is projected to be a touch more valuable than Evan Mobley’s rookie season a couple years ago, where he went for $36 in simple points, $45 in trad points, and $48 in categories.
I don’t have any numbers right now on how much more Scoot would be projected for in the event of a Dame trade, though I’d like to add some ability to fiddle with the projections at some point.
Now on to how the different formats were impacted. Rookies will be excluded from these tables since all the relevant info is in the above table. Minutes projections for the veteran players were the same between the “old” (no rookies) and the “new” (rookies included).
I’m pretty sure it’s just a coincidence that Zach Collins is the main beneficiary of Wemby being added, though it is kinda funny. I was a little surprised that any veterans gained projected value, but I guess the added rookies moved the replacement level line and impacted the surplus factor that’s used to find the projected value. Other than Collins, De’Anthony Melton was the only other player to see a boost of more than $1.
Of the top five “losers” (I feel bad calling them that…), only Matisse Thybulle went from projected positive value to being a replacement level player. Again I think it’s just a coincidence that one of the impacted players is a teammate of one of the main rookies. The rest of the losers are all top end guys who got knocked down just a touch when compared to their overall value.
In another illustration of how simple points is the most conducive to rookies, only Zach Collins saw his value go up with the rookies included. Nobody else moved in that direction.
Here we see several players booted into the replacement level pool, though I think there’s reason for optimism with all of them. Smart could have some early season value while Morant is suspended, though his adjustment to the Grizzlies will be interesting. Fultz and Sexton will both be fending off rookie guards in Anthony Black and Keyonte George, respectively. Sexton also had very rosy projections last year before struggling with injuries. If he can be healthy, maybe he makes some noise this year. Lu Dort has the toughest road as he’s now behind SGA, Giddey, and Jalen Williams on the perimeter for the Thunder, though he’s also the easiest to plug into an off-ball role of those players.
Kevin Huerter got knocked down a touch as well, but is still a strongly positive player and probably still a surplus value for most teams.
I upped the number of players to include here since there were so many. Jokic somehow got pushed up even higher! And many other high level players saw increases along with our favorite gainer, Zach Collins. I am curious about why so many players got bumped up here…just another thread to pull on, if I have the time.
Similar to the gainers, we see players with sizeable deltas compared to their projections without the rookies included. Several got bumped into the replacement player pool. It’s interesting that all of these players have F eligibility while most of the gainers have G eligibility.
I can share the full document if people are interested, especially since not all the impacted players in traditional points were shared.
Next up in my projects list is adding fppg and some other things to the app itself, and an analysis of how the various projections that I downloaded prior to the 2022-23 season performed, aka some retrodictions.