Ottoneu Prestige League Strategy and Analysis

Interested in Ottoneu Prestige League (OPL) strategy? I wrote up some thoughts on analyzing players for OPL rosters:

I also wrote up a data analysis on rostering relief pitchers in OPL.

I analyzed 33,000 randomly constructed rosters with between five and 15 relief pitchers using data from the first 30 days of the 2019 MLB season. I concluded that:

  • It is very unlikely that you will fill five relief pitcher spots in the OPL lineup on a daily basis.
  • It is very unlikely that you will have relief pitcher positive points days excluded from the daily active OPL lineup—positive points days will be efficiently captured by the five daily lineup spots.

Click here to see the extended analysis if interested:

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I wrote up an analysis of starting pitcher roster construction for OPL. The analysis relies on a similar design to my earlier analysis of relief pitcher roster construction. I analyzed 33,000 randomly constructed rosters with between five and 15 starting pitchers using data from the first 30 days of the 2019 MLB season.
I concluded that:
It is very unlikely that you will consistently fill two starting pitcher spots in the OPL lineup on a daily basis. A typical number of starting pitchers will likely fill one or two of the slots on roughly two-thirds of days.
You will rarely have starting pitcher positive points days excluded from the daily, active OPL lineup—positive points days will be efficiently captured by the five daily lineup spots. Unlucky managers might see multiple starters with positive points days excluded from the active lineup with the potential to miss out on roughly 100 points.
Click here to see the extended analysis if interested:

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I put some thought into some of the roster construction questions in regard to positional value. The following is based on 2019 data for 308 players from the 2019 Surplus Calculator. The data in the tables may provide some useful context for roster decisions.

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Other than being grossly oversimplistic, how do you feel about “Each minor leaguer you carry will cost you around 100 points per round in OPL” as a general rule of thumb. I would love to hear that you think the impact is smaller but my gut (and no math) tell me that the decision to compete with a 40 man MLB roster with 3 averagish pitchers on the back end or 37 man MLB roster instead that includes my MiLB players may be an even bigger decision than the exact makeup of the roster construction (within reason of course). I also suspect it may not be as important in the opening round or two as many will choose to hang on to those MiLB players unless they see the chance to win it - the degree of my competitive disadvantage will be up to my fellow owners of course.

I cannot make a guess about the points you might forgo by rostering a prospect because every roster spot is context specific. Prospects will of course produce zero points before promotion to the MLB team, but some may be promoted during an OPL round. You might also consider the trade value of a prospect and how carrying a zero for a roster spot through the first one or two rounds might be greatly outweighed by the potential trade return in subsequent rounds. Finally, the points that could potentially be scored by a player added from the free agent pool varies by free agent. Will the free agent replacing a prospect get injured or underperform…or even get demoted? A great deal to consider!

One might assume that FG points are a decent approximation of OPL points. Is this assumption supported by player performance data? If that assumption is true, do some players get a bigger boost in OPL scoring relative to FGpts scoring than others? Are there particular player profiles that are correlated with outperformance in OPL?

My answers are yes, yes, and yes. Click to read more.

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What best predicts success in the Ottoneu Prestige League (OPL)? What best predicts total OPL points scored? I tested several hypotheses about roster construction, Surplus Calculator team value, and playing time. I conclude that playing time is the most important predictor, and to a lesser extent, Surplus Calculator team value.

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