Just wondering if there is any new thoughts, or past thoughts on bringing defense to the game and the thinking behind the possibility in the future. Thanks for the game!
Not really much to report on this front. Defensive stats are still high-variance and don’t have a huge sample size, especially in this TTO hitting environment. Defense is also affected by park effects, and park effects can change in-season, which would then retroactively change defensive performance. Those are the main factors that make me hesitant to add defensive stats into Ottoneu.
If anyone has any new research that shows evolution on defensive stats that I have not considered, please let me know.
The Outs Above Average (OAA) from Statcast data represent the latest development on defensive stats. Tango Tiger unveiled OAA for outfielders last year and released “iteration one” of the infield OAA a month or so ago.
They range from about -15 to +15 within a season (like other defensive metrics), so there is limited variation between most players. And the error bars are pretty large, just like UZR, etc.
IMHO, they would not make for a meaningful addition to Ottoneu.
I’ll read about OAA a bit. Thanks for pointing me in that direction.