2026 Top 3 vs 2025 Top 3
This year’s freshman class for college hoops is much ballyhooed, particularly the top 3 of Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa, and Cam Boozer. They have all occupied the #1 spot in their class rankings at some point, though none of them seem to be on the level of Cooper Flagg, and I wanted to see how the two classes stacked up in the Ottoneu market. My initial thoughts were it was unlikely any would reach Flagg’s status, but this group would still be held in high regard.
Now that each league has drafted, I have average salaries as a proxy for how the market views these players. I also have some imperfect historical data thanks to downloading average salaries at the end of the year for past arbitration analyses. So how did the Ottoneu market treat Peterson, Dybantsa, and Boozer? Individually, none of them rise to the level of Flagg but Ottoneu sees the 2026 top 3 (cumulative $40.41 average salary) as slightly better than last year’s ($39.65).
It’s remarkable to me how closely bunched the three are, with Peterson and Dybantsa having identical average salaries, though Peterson edges AJ when looking at median salaries at $15 to $14. Curiously, Boozer has the highest maximum and minimum salary out of the three at $30 and $5, compared to $24 and $1 (!!!) for Peterson and $28 and $4 for Dybantsa.
Clearly the Ottobasket markets rate this year’s group quite highly as they place 4 players in the top 15 (Ament is tied with Ron Holland, but I cut the table at 14 for space). Only that 2023 class with Wemby, Scoot, and the Thompsons stacks up, but it’s not a one to one comparison since none of them first came available in their draft year. The 2025 class was also well respected with VJ Edgecombe and Nolan Traore also commanded average salaries over $3, though Traore’s may have been higher at draft time since his draft stock tumbled as the season wore on.
Traore is one example showing a high preseason salary doesn’t guarantee a high draft pick, and the reverse is also true, as players such as Brandon Miller, Zaccharie Risacher*, and Kon Kneuppel rose over the course of the season to be high picks.
Brief Thoughts on the Top 3
Darryn Peterson
My pick for the top prospect and it seems like he’s the most common choice at this time. Incredibly fluid athlete and a bit of a throwback as it feels like the league hasn’t seen many two guards with this frame and explosiveness since the 2000s. His defense might set him apart. How well he shoots it and involves others will be worth watching at Kansas. He rose up the rankings after Dybantsa and Boozer. He and AJ were both in January 2007, just missing the cutoff for the 2025 draft and making them about a month younger than Flagg.
AJ Dybantsa
Super skilled and explosive big wing. His shot has come along nicely. The impact on winning basketball is a bit of a cop out for a question mark, but it’s where I’m at with him in my fairly limited looks. Does he fall in love with the midrange or get to the hoop? He lead Team USA to a win at the 2025 Hoop Summit, but it was a much closer game than the 2024 edition, when a Flagg lead US team demolished a World team that included Dybantsa. Is he more Andrew Wiggins or Jayson Tatum?
Cam Boozer
Despite having perhaps the longest and most decorated history of the three, Boozer is the hardest for me to pin down. He clearly has great (elite?) strength and has made strides as a shooter. He’s the youngest of the three, turning 19 right around the draft, and obviously has been around the game his whole life thanks to his dad, Carlos Boozer. And oh by the way, he has won everywhere and has collected personal accolades along the way. I can’t list all of them here - just go look at his bio page for Duke.
So why am I not totally convinced? Clearly a couple of Ottobasket players are, considering his max salary. He lacks great explosive and length, which could make him very reliant on strength and touch around the hoop. At “only” 6’9”, that could be an issue at the pro level. He’s improved as a shooter but he shoots a bit of a moon-ball that looks a bit uncomfortable, but if it goes in, who cares?
Lastly, and perhaps least relevant for Ottoneu, I’m worried that he’s locked into the PF spot defensively and if the shot also doesn’t work, where does that leave a team? Does Duke trust him to be the lone big? They may not need him in that position once Maliq Brown is back, but it’s worth watching. Perhaps I’m simply projecting my worries about another recent Duke PF who went #1 and has Florida ties…
Notes on Data Collection and Assumptions
The historical data required some assumptions, mostly based on my recollection of top prospects from each preseason and assuming that the truly top tier prospects generally were not cut mid-season and re-auctioned. Basically, I am comparing preseason salaries for this year to end of season salaries from previous years and assuming they are the same for this sample of players.
Players like the Thompson twins who were not available during their draft year have often been more expensive than they likely would have been if they were available for start of season auctions. Backing up their draft status during Summer League certainly boosted Amen, Ausar, and Yang Hansen to higher salaries once they were available, though that’s not always true. Ratiopharm Ulm’s pair of 2025 first rounders, Noa Essengue and Ben Saraf, carry average salaries of $1.75 and $1.50 while being rostered in 47.1% and 11.8% of leagues, respectively.
It’s worth calling out that Wembanyama became available during the 2021-22 season once many teams were already set as Niv was adding more leagues. The higher average salaries for the top 2026 players could be due in part to increased inflation as more leagues age.