Forgive me if this has been discussed before, but in points leagues why are wins not worth points like saves or holds?
Finally…there are saves and holds. Wait, saves and holds? For a sabermetrix points system?!? Yes. We need a way to recognize the value of relievers that throw in high leverage situations. In FanGraphs WAR, for example, relievers are given partial credit for the high leverage of their innings in recognition of the extra impact those innings have on the outcome of games. Adding points for saves and holds mimics this, albeit imperfectly: we effectively give closers double-credit for those innings in which they record a save. The reason that holds are set so close to the point values for saves is that it prevents the save from ruling all
I’d be curious to see if anyone has done analysis since. Specifically in the instances of relivers coming into games down a run or two. Relivers often hold teams scoreless and end up in position to get the win vs a hold or a save. Especially since 2011, starters pitch fewer innings today and sometimes the SP isn’t even eligible to win because they do not last 5 innings.
Wins are still dependent on the team scoring runs, where high leverage relief innings (holds, saves) only exist once the team has actually scored runs.
It’s certainly the case that SP are recorded a smaller percentage of pitcher wins now than they did even a decade ago. In 2020, SP recorded 469 of 898 pitcher wins (52%) compared to 1,736 of 2,430 (71%) in 2010. Although it’s back up to 59% in the limited sample of 2021 so far.
Holds and saves somewhat correspond to WPA (i.e., pitchers who record holds and saves pitch successfully in high leverage situations), so it makes sense to award points. Wins don’t really capture that dynamic, for either SP or RP. So IMHO it makes sense for FGPts to award points to RP for holds and saves but not award points to anyone for wins.
Do not disagree there. I guess I am interested in the relief appearances during close games that are ostensibly ‘hold’ situations but the pitcher’s team is trailing by 1 run or the game is tied. The leverage factor is still high, but the pitcher is unable to do anything to earn a save or a hold. At best, they can only earn a win.
I guess perhaps I’d be in favor of MLB’s hold definition being tweaked to reward relivers for holding leads and keeping deficits small.
Well you’re going to find this really disappointing:
I see that as meaning there is hope for future improvement / clarification!