Because it’s fun, possibly instructive (to those new to Ottoneu), and because the @Brinksmanship league is fully of some really smart dudes who are all good sports, I’m going to attempt to do something here I haven’t done before and negotiate a trade out in the open, welcoming feedback from all.
Entering 2018, I expected to retool my roster for 2019, and in doing so I purposely wanted to carry both Trout ($81) and Goldschmidt ($58) to flip in-season. I’ve made this clear to the entire league from even before the draft. I’ve agreed to cover the entire difference in salary with a loan, and I’ve even stated that I would be willing to package Trout and Goldy together to get exactly what I want in return (with a full intention of being competitive in 2019). My preference is to moving Goldy before Trout if a sell them separately.
That’s the context. Now, I’m going to attempt to make an opening offer (or at least set a baseline for discussion) with as many teams as I can. The real purpose of this post however is to try and answer two key questions that come up often in the Ottoneu community:
- How do you calculate the value of a trade during the (the net gain in points for the rest of the season)?
- What is that net gain worth in future value (players, prospects, etc.)?
I know @joecatz is a good sport and since we’ve already started this open trade debate on Slack, here was our an initial discussion after he expressed interest in one or both of Trout/Goldy:
My opening point: “Would you move a $3 Gleyber Torres, $3 Max Fried, and $1 Christian Villanueva for Goldy ($58)?”
Joe said “No, that isn’t enough of a rest of season (ROS) point gain for my roster to move those players for Goldy.”
My quick math:
Goldy @ 7.3 P/G x 135 games ROS (Depth Charts) = 985 points
Villianueva @ 5.3 P/G x 110 games ROS (Depth Charts) = 585 points
Net ROS point gain: 400 points
My response: a 400 point gain is worth at least a $3 Gleyber Torres and $3 Max Fried if I am sending Goldschmidt to you for the cost of just $7 for the rest of the season.
Again, key questions for anyone trying to trade away or for a superstar player:
- How are you calculating the ROS net gain?
- What is that gain worth in terms of future value?