What will be the impact of rule changes on stolen bases in 2023?

Baseball Polls
1

The bigger bases this year will lead to a 4.5-inch reduction in the distance between 1st and 2nd and between 2nd and 3rd. Pickoff attempts are also now limited to 2 per plate appearance.

Here are some references for past years’ stolen base numbers:

Season Players w/ 20-29 SB Players w/ 30-39 Players w/ 40+ Total w/ 20+ SB League Leader League Leader Total
2022 18 5 1 24 Jon Berti 41
2021 13 4 2 19 Starling Marte 47
2019 13 5 3 21 Mallex Smith 46
2018 17 8 3 28 Whit Merrifield 45
2017 23 3 3 29 Dee Strange-Gordon 60
2016 14 9 5 28 Jonathan Villar 62
2015 23 4 3 30 Dee Strange-Gordon 58


Now to the polls!

How many players will steal 20+ bases in 2023?

  • 20 or less
  • Between 21 and 25
  • Between 26 and 30
  • Between 31 and 35
  • Between 36 and 40
  • Between 41 and 45
  • More than 45

0 voters

How many players will steal 40+ bases in 2023?

  • 0
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • More than 5

0 voters

How many bases will the league leader steal in 2023?

  • Less than 35
  • Between 36 and 40
  • Bewteen 41 and 45
  • Between 46 and 50
  • Between 51 and 55
  • Between 56 and 60
  • More than 60

0 voters

2 Likes
2

The counterargument to it having a positively significant effect is that the run environment is likely going to be higher in 2023 than it was post-rabbit ball. We won’t see 2019 level offense, but the bases and other rule changes (e.g., elimination of the shift) are going to likely increase R/G. As R/G rises, the break-even SB% increases and empirically. Most teams are now saavy enough to pay attention to these sorts of chances these days. Indeed, as team R/G increases, team SBO% decreases (SBO%=(SB+CS)/(1B+BB)).

My best guess is that we’ll see about as much basestealing in 2023 as we’ve seen in recent years, with a handful of teams being very aggressive (e.g., Marlins, Rangers, Royals).

3

IMO I think the limited P/O attempts will play a bigger part in stolen bases. “Catch me if you can”. Plus the shorter distance will lead to more attempts. A good arm from the catcher comes into play and scenario when the runner is has a higher probability to go. However, I think Scherzer may be right. With the “clock” pitchers dictate the game a bit more. So, you have to get on base to take advantage of to P/O attempts and the shorter distance between bases. Young middle relievers will be pressed to keep things in check, when the starter comes out of the game. An interesting season to be sure.

3 Likes