Which players will be the biggest targets in arbitration this month? I’ve attempted to answer that question by creating the Arbitration Target spreadsheet below for FGPTS. This tool averages @vibbot Steamer600 $ values (loaded for Surplus Calc) with his 2016 Final Values, and then compares the player against their current FGPTS Ottoneu Average Value (as of 10.14.16).
Feel free to use this as a guide for your arbitration allocations in October.
Who is @everyone going to be targeting for arbitration in your league(s)?
The RP are interesting. Considering the known volatility among RP, I’d be hesitant to arb them as if they were worth their full value. I bet Segura dodges a lot of arb based on people seeing his roller coaster track record. I know I’ll be hesitant.
Thor gonna get crushed. Turner, Betts too.
Yeah any RP $ valuations for 2017 right now rely on quite a bit of guesswork, and I agree that their inherent volatility makes them a poor target for allocations (unless a guy like Champan/Kenley/Betances/Miller is owned for less than $10 or so).
Bryant is still going to get hit hard too. The guy I think might be most interesting is Gary Sanchez, since he’s likely going to be impacted by recency bias. I have no idea what to make of him. Is he the #1 C going into 2017? Not to me, but it will be fascinating to see what the projections say this winter.
For down-list guys, I bet Michael Fulmer ($8 estimated value), Andrew Benintendi ($9), Yu Darvish ($22), Carlos Correa ($27), Julio Tehran ($12), Jonathan Schoop ($4), Gregory Polanco ($8), Anthony Rendon ($17), and Addison Russell ($5) end up with higher Feb 1st average values than estimated value.
Candidates start to get more obvious the further you go down the deficit list, because I doubt you’ll see enough owners dropping guys like Posey ($23) to reduce their average to that level. But the guys above I bet get hit harder (or decline less) due to various process- and judgement-related reasons.
EDIT: Of course, my assumption that cuts in leagues affect average salary may be wrong?
Ottoneu Average Values (all game types) captured here the day before arbitration begins (10.15.16).
We can use this to compare the impact of arbitration on November 16th following arbitration.