This question comes up from time to time, so I figured I might as well document some of these numbers (based on my review of historical FGPts auction results).
First, here are the average # of players at each position that are typically owned after the auction:
Here are the average # at each position needed to fill league G and IP caps (based on research by @OttoneuTrades and @giambistache):
Next, the typical number of players won at auction for $2+ (this is a way to reflect how many players at each position the historical ottoneu market views as above replacement):
Lastly, some general average auction results:
62/38% split between hitting and pitching
$10-$15 per team left unspent (about 1 roster spot/team on average left open)
$5-$10 per team spent on prospects (excluding those that project at $1+), about 4/team
Edited 2/14/17 after some early auction results
Thanks so much for this! Going into my first auction this gives me a great idea of what to plan for.
I’m curious about the SS numbers. There being on average 35 shortstops owned per league, does that imply that shortstops are generally speaking a better source of surplus value than 2Bs for the MI position?
Not exactly, no. I think ignoring the # of players owned at a position and just looking at the # needed to fill Games, SS end up costing more than they “should”. That disconnect seems to just be the ottoneu market highly valuing the scarce position (note that 1B has the opposite problem, 25-26 are needed to fill 1B/UTIL games but typically only 24-25 are owned).
The bottom line is the actions of your league mean that replacement level at SS is lower than the “optimum” level (meaning it costs more to win a SS), and 1B replacement level is higher (meaning it costs less to win a 1B). Bottom line- ottoneu owners appear to be overemphasizing positional value.
So how do you react to that - when the top 12 or more SS are overpaid? Go with a lower tier or replacement level at SS or pay the premium? Over the years I’ve tended to go bargain hunting at SS and C but I think it ended up hurting last year.
Well, my $ values already reflect that higher premium for those positions, but otherwise in general I will not bid more than my max bid on my sheet for a player and will bargain hunt if I have to (though I won’t be happy about it).
I think last years struggles had more to do with who I targeted as a bargain (Suarez/Cozart), usually it works out a bit better than that.
I agree that SS replacement level seems so much higher this year, but it’s still getting a premium. And 1B kind of worries me with it’s depth, I’d much rather have a higher tier option there.
So maybe I’ll artificially increase SS a bit, but halfway expect to end up in the bargain bin again to avoid paying a steep premium.